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I have mentioned before that Bayesian Inference is, in general, intractable. People like Gaussians a lot because many nice results in closedform can be derived from them, analytical treatments are in general possible and even easy to do, but for … Continue reading
A few months ago, someone who used to be called perversesheaf came to tumblr to bash LessWrong there. Now, while there is a very large number of criticisms that can be aimed at it, both as a website and community, … Continue reading
Three days ago I got slightly drunk with a few friends (two of which were mentioned in a recent post) and one of them and I were trying to explain to the other what the difference between confidence and credible intervals were. Since … Continue reading
In part 3, I discussed the problem of finding a way of drawing a posterior point estimate of a number based on a series of point estimates that’s more “theoretically valid” than taking the median, which is the standard of the … Continue reading
I was talking to a friend (the same friend who inspired the two previous posts), who was talking to a friend of ours about a thing, and there’s a context but it doesn’t matter to what I want to write here. Suppose … Continue reading
There’s a concept in Probability Theory called “entropy,” which borrows a bit from the physical concept of the same name. Intuitively, it’s the degree of “surprise” of an observation, or of a probability distribution. Alternatively, it’s how much information you gain … Continue reading
What is truth? Many an author has written lengthy philosophical treatises that begin with exactly this question, but, however shaky my identification with the group may be, as a rationalist my first and foremost answer to that question – or my … Continue reading
Time for a writeup! Or something. So I’ve written before about Logical Uncertainty in a very vague way. And a few weeks ago I wrote about a specific problem of Logical Uncertainty which was presented in the MIRI workshop. I’m gonna reference definitions and results from … Continue reading
So I’m at a MIRI workshop on Logical Uncertainty, and I’m gonna make a more complete post about it later, but I wanted to talk about a thing that has been on my mind. So we’re trying to build a … Continue reading
In part 1, I talked about the Bayesian way of dealing with, well, noise, in a certain sense. How do I figure out that I “should not” conditionalise on a person’s astrological sign when predicting the cost of the bridge … Continue reading