# Tag Archives: bayesianism

## Bayesian Networks

I have mentioned before that Bayesian Inference is, in general, intractable. People like Gaussians a lot because many nice results in closed-form can be derived from them, analytical treatments are in general possible and even easy to do, but for … Continue reading

## Stopping rules, p-values, and the likelihood principle

A few months ago, someone who used to be called perversesheaf came to tumblr to bash LessWrong there. Now, while there is a very large number of criticisms that can be aimed at it, both as a website and community, … Continue reading

## Confidence and Credibility

Three days ago I got slightly drunk with a few friends (two of which were mentioned in a recent post) and one of them and I were trying to explain to the other what the difference between confidence and credible intervals were. Since … Continue reading

## Learning Bayes [part 3.5]

In part 3, I discussed the problem of finding a way of drawing a posterior point estimate of a number  based on a series of point estimates that’s more “theoretically valid” than taking the median, which is the standard of the … Continue reading

## Learning Bayes [part 3]

I was talking to a friend (the same friend who inspired the two previous posts), who was talking to a friend of ours about a thing, and there’s a context but it doesn’t matter to what I want to write here. Suppose … Continue reading

## Truth, Probability, and Unachievable Consistency

What is truth? Many an author has written lengthy philosophical treatises that begin with exactly this question, but, however shaky my identification with the group may be, as a rationalist my first and foremost answer to that question – or my … Continue reading

Posted in Mathematics, Probability Theory, Rationality | | 3 Comments

## Learning Bayes [part 2]

In part 1, I talked about the Bayesian way of dealing with, well, noise, in a certain sense. How do I figure out that I “should not” conditionalise on a person’s astrological sign when predicting the cost of the bridge … Continue reading

Posted in Mathematics, Probability Theory | | 1 Comment

## Learning Bayes [part 1]

I have a confession to make. I don’t actually know Bayesian statistics. Or, any statistics at all, really. Shocking, I know. But hear me out. What I know is… Bayesian theory. I can derive Bayes’ Theorem, and I also can probably … Continue reading