# Monthly Archives: May 2014

## Orthodox test statistics and the absence of alternatives

Recently, while reading Jaynes’ Probability Theory: the Logic of Science, I was overcome by an urge to rant about some of the stuff I read there, and one of the things I said was that, basically, orthodox statistics sucks. Well, first … Continue reading

Posted in Mathematics, Probability Theory | | 15 Comments

## Other ways of looking at probability

Bayes’ Theorem is all nice and dandy, but it may not necessarily be the best thing to work with. It’s quite simple: When laid out this way, what it says is that the probability of some proposition after you learn that … Continue reading

## Don’t be so sure…

One of the great insights of Bayes’ Theorem is the gradation of belief. This is in fact not how most people intuitively reason! Most people have this intuitive feeling of black-and-white, zero-or-one, believe-or-don’t-believe. When they’re thinking about something they want to … Continue reading

## What is evidence?

Simply put, evidence is any observation that changes your probability assignments for a given hypothesis. That’s pretty much it. We can further define evidence for a hypothesis as one that makes the hypothesis more likely, and evidence against a hypothesis as one that makes it … Continue reading

## The supreme, most ultimate post on Bayes’ Theorem (maybe)

This was originally posted by cyborgbutterflies on tumblr, and I’m reproducing it here because it’s enormously important. In this post, I’ll share some of my favorite resources to understand this hugely important statistical method for finding truth and being correct. This method is so great … Continue reading

## What do I mean when I talk about rationality?

I am sometimes under the impression that a lot of people think rationality is Spock. You can read the link on an explanation of why that is not so. No, usually, when aspiring rationalists talk about rationality, we mean one of two things: Something … Continue reading