This was originally posted by cyborgbutterflies on tumblr, and I’m reproducing it here because it’s enormously important.
In this post, I’ll share some of my favorite resources to understand this hugely important statistical method for finding truth and being correct. This method is so great and powerful that the scientific method is a specific case of Bayesian reasoning.
Maybe you can join us after you’re done~
The single most popular writing on the subject seems to be An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem, by Eliezer Yudkowsky.
This is a very nice and well-explained essay that includes some really nerdy jokes and interesting Java tools for experimenting. Afterwards you can also read up A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation, by the same author.
Over at Common Sense Atheism, Luke Muehlhauser has written an even simpler introduction. If you forgot what a logarithm was or if you can’t intuitively understand some of the terms in Eliezer’s explanation, then An Intuitive Explanation of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem might be for you. This one is very gentle and I doubt most people with some motivation to learn will have trouble with it.
At Better Explained, Kalid Azad also has an explanation, summarizing many of the ideas found in Yudkowsky’s posts very nicely.
In Less Wrong, user komponisto made a post introducing a method for visualizing Bayes’ Theorem.
Oscar Bonilla provides his own explanation using Venn Diagrams to aid visualization.
As a bonus, here’s a Bayesian Calculator I found.