The supreme, most ultimate post on Bayes’ Theorem (maybe)

This was originally posted by cyborgbutterflies on tumblr, and I’m reproducing it here because it’s enormously important.

In this post, I’ll share some of my favorite resources to understand this hugely important statistical method for finding truth and being correct. This method is so great and powerful that the scientific method is a specific case of Bayesian reasoning.

Maybe you can join us after you’re done~

The single most popular writing on the subject seems to be An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem, by Eliezer Yudkowsky.

This is a very nice and well-explained essay that includes some really nerdy jokes and interesting Java tools for experimenting. Afterwards you can also read up A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation, by the same author.

Over at Common Sense Atheism, Luke Muehlhauser has written an even simpler introduction. If you forgot what a logarithm was or if you can’t intuitively understand some of the terms in Eliezer’s explanation, then An Intuitive Explanation of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem might be for you. This one is very gentle and I doubt most people with some motivation to learn will have trouble with it.

At Better Explained, Kalid Azad also has an explanation, summarizing many of the ideas found in Yudkowsky’s posts very nicely.

In Less Wrong, user komponisto made a post introducing a method for visualizing Bayes’ Theorem.

Oscar Bonilla provides his own explanation using Venn Diagrams to aid visualization.

This explanation by Mario F. Triola is also worth looking at, as is Kaj_Sotala’s Less Wrong post summarizing some ideas.

Comparisons with frequentist statistics can be found herehere and here.

As a bonus, here’s a Bayesian Calculator I found.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Basic Rationality, Rationality and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to The supreme, most ultimate post on Bayes’ Theorem (maybe)

  1. Pingback: Don’t be so sure… | An Aspiring Rationalist's Ramble

  2. Pingback: Other ways of looking at probability | An Aspiring Rationalist's Ramble

  3. Pingback: Occam’s Razor | An Aspiring Rationalist's Ramble

  4. Pingback: Bayes’ Theorem | An Aspiring Rationalist's Ramble

  5. Pingback: Absence of evidence is evidence of absence | An Aspiring Rationalist's Ramble

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s