Daily Archives: May 5, 2014

Don’t be so sure…

One of the great insights of Bayes’ Theorem is the gradation of belief. This is in fact not how most people intuitively reason! Most people have this intuitive feeling of black-and-white, zero-or-one, believe-or-don’t-believe. When they’re thinking about something they want to … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Rationality, Mathematics, Probability Theory, Rationality | Tagged , , , , , , | 5 Comments

What is evidence?

Simply put, evidence is any observation that changes your probability assignments for a given hypothesis. That’s pretty much it. We can further define evidence for a hypothesis as one that makes the hypothesis more likely, and evidence against a hypothesis as one that makes it … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Rationality, Mathematics, Probability Theory, Rationality | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

The supreme, most ultimate post on Bayes’ Theorem (maybe)

This was originally posted by cyborgbutterflies on tumblr, and I’m reproducing it here because it’s enormously important. In this post, I’ll share some of my favorite resources to understand this hugely important statistical method for finding truth and being correct. This method is so great … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Rationality, Rationality | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

What do I mean when I talk about rationality?

I am sometimes under the impression that a lot of people think rationality is Spock. You can read the link on an explanation of why that is not so. No, usually, when aspiring rationalists talk about rationality, we mean one of two things: Something … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Rationality, Rationality | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Finally, this is here!

Hello! This is my new blog, the one I’ve been promising to create for… quite a while. It will contain the more serious posts that I usually posted on tumblr and… yeah, I guess that’s it! I’ll rewrite my old … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment